Hard-hit Nevada will be key battleground in 2012
* Romney viewed as Republican front-runnerBy Andy SullivanLAS VEGAS, Oct 18 (Reuters) - A Republican debate will play
out in one of this city’s glittering casinos, but the real
battleground for next year’s U.S. presidential election lies in
the foreclosure-racked neighborhoods that sprawl beyond the Las
Vegas Strip’s bright lights.Few U.S. cities have been hit harder by the recession than
Las Vegas, which is likely to be one of the most hotly
contested prizes in an election dominated by economic
concerns.Las Vegas leads the nation in foreclosures and the
unemployment rate is also among the highest.One out of six people in the region have wondered over the
past month where they will find their next meal, according to
Three Square, a food bank serving the area.”I know so many people who are desperate,” said Linda
Overby, a painter who has been out of work since April.Though the economy may not pick up any time soon, Overby
and other Las Vegas residents will get plenty of attention from
presidential candidates over the coming months.Nevada, which has backed the winning candidate in every
election stretching back to 1976, is one of a handful of
battleground states that could decide next year’s election.This time, the state’s early caucus, tentatively set for
Jan. 14, will also give it an outsize influence in the
Republican primary race, although some candidates are
threatening to boycott the vote here due to a fight over which
states should hold primaries first.The caucus will be the first in the West, a region that
features high numbers of independent and Hispanic voters and
relatively few of the Christian conservatives who play a large
role in other early contests.COUNTERING THE REID MACHINEIt will also give the state Republican Party a chance to
build an organization to counter Senate Democratic leader Harry
Reid’s machine, which helped Barack Obama win the presidency in
2008 and saw Reid through a tough re-election battle last
year.Democrats now have 100,000 more registered voters than
Republicans, and Reid and other Democrats are already laying
the groundwork for next year with a three-day conference
focused on winning in Nevada and other Western mountain states.
Obama is scheduled to visit on Oct. 24.Republicans say he will have a hard time repeating his 2008
victory given the state’s dismal economic condition.”Simply put, he has failed miserably to deliver on the
promises of his previous campaign,” said Robert Uithoven, a
Nevada Republican consultant in the state who is not aligned
with any candidate.First, Republicans have to pick a candidate of their own.
No opinion polls have been published since August, but insiders
say Mitt Romney has the best chance of winning at this point.MORMON FAITH COULD HELP ROMNEYRomney’s Mormon faith, which could be a liability in other
states, is likely to help here. Fellow Mormons who account for
11 percent of the population helped him win the 2008 caucus and
will be a factor again this time.Romney has held several high-profile events in Las Vegas
over the past few months. He unveiled his jobs plan here in
September and raised $10 million in a phone-a-thon in June.”He’s been here more than anyone, he’s got a solid
organization, and the Mormon community will vote heavily in
proportion to others,” said Sig Rogich, another Nevada
Republican consultant who remains unaffiliated.Rick Perry has a powerful ally in Nevada Governor Brian
Sandoval, a Hispanic, and he recently hired his first staffers
in the state. But Perry’s lackluster debate performances could
hurt his prospects in Nevada.Herman Cain, meanwhile, could see his sudden national
popularity translate to success in the January caucus.Ron Paul, who finished second in 2008, retains a devoted
following in this libertarian-leaning state.Candidates with strong support among Christian
conservatives, like Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum,
probably will not do well in Nevada as social issues are not
likely to be a factor.In the jaws of a gut-wrenching recession, economic concerns
will play an even bigger role in Nevada than elsewhere.”Anyone who’s running for the presidency is going to need
to articulate some type of coherent plan,” said Kenneth
Fernandez, a political-science professor at the University of
Nevada-Las Vegas.
